This week, Bill Warner took on the issue of starting and building "Grand Slam" technology companies here in the great state of Massachusetts, with a scorecard and a playbook. Scott Kirstner covered the scorecard: you get a single when you can hire a few employees, a double when sales go over $10M, and a grand slam if you get to a $10B market cap. For those of you who aren't Boston insiders, I'll cover the basics of the plot. Bill remembers the time when companies like Digital Equipment Corporation started here, employed tens of thousands in the state, and made Route 128 a hub to rival Silicon Valley. That trend peaked in about 1980, about the time that Apple and Microsoft were building much smaller offices on the West coast. That year began a long slow decline relative to California. So, my state finds itself with the same question that thousands of regional economic development authorities are asking - how to grow the tech economy? - but a deeper bench of experienced talent to debate the point.
By 2010, the Silicon Valley tech scene in California is at least five times as big as the one in Massachusetts. Boston investors and businessmen attached themselves to a shrinking sector, funding enterprise technology and "proven" teams rather than new consumer-oriented products and services. Young, un-proven entrepreneurs still go to school in Boston, but they are forced to go to California if they want access to funding - Facebook being one well-known example out of many. Successful Massachusetts technology companies have been acquired by out of state buyers, and few big ones remain standing.
It's the last point that Warner fastened on. He thinks that the state needs to grow some new big, independent companies, in order to provide opportunity for its tech citizens. This is interesting, because for as long as I have known him, Bill has been a dogged supporter of small, early stage companies, and he once said about himself (founder of Avid, quite a big company) that he starts to "get uncomfortable after about 20 employees". So, why is he concerned about later stage growth?
He is right. I believe that having big, successful, locally owned companies is important, for one specific reason. Those companies buy smaller companies. Massachusetts doesn't have many big acquirors. Warner lists three in the Grand Slam category - EMC, Thermo Fischer, and Raytheon, and Kirstner rounds it out with two biotech companies - Genzyme and Biogen Idec. California has dozens.
I think that accounts for most of the difference in the startup climate. The money that Silicon Valley successes pour into acquisitions - many of them local - is what feeds investment of time and money and excitement all the way down to the seed stage. If Massachusetts has timid investors (indubitably true, relative to California), it is because it's harder for them to make money. MA investors and entrepreneurs basically come from the same population as CA investors and entrepreneurs, and they move back and forth. Shoveling a bit of snow isn't enough to stymie their animal spirits. They clearly face differing reward structures And, my bet is that local acquirors make it a lot easier to get rewarded.
Ironically, Warner's pitch is designed to persuade companies NOT to be acquired. I think its consistent. If you have active local acquirors, that gives you the confidence to make investments, and ultimately makes it more likely that you can succeed independently.
So, how much of this argument do I support? There are three issues.
ONE, do I think that it's important to build locally? Emotionally and intellectually, it would be great fun to live in a hot tech city, and it would provide better opportunities for my friends and neighbors. I wrote an intensely felt paper on this subject two years ago, and decided against posting it.
But, this feeling is hard to justify from a business point of view. What we are actually doing as a business is spreading out - building up in California, and internationalizing our our product and our team. Only 30% of our users are in the US. When you see the building booms in Bangalore and Shanghai, you quickly realize that the real action has moved far beyond Silicon Valley.
Those locations have faster growth, available labor, and more saved capital - key ingredients for business expansion. They have a lot more IPO's than the US. In comparison, it may be even be economically impractical to fight the pressure AGAINST tech growth in Massachusetts, pressure created by the scarcity of affordable housing, the relatively higher salaries in the financial services industry, and government industrial subsidies for housing, banking, education, health care, and biotech (but not software). All of these things crowd out software jobs. As in Avatar, "you can't pour water into a full cup."
With each new hire that I make, I'm finding that the hire is not in Massachusetts. We hired net 10 people in 2009 (with a lot more coming in 2010), but we only hired one in Massachusetts, even though we did look here. Maybe I'll write later on the difficulties of hiring in MA.
And, morally, should we be hiring in Massachusetts? American policy has turned against immigration. Immigrants create jobs. I'm not sure we deserve those jobs if we turn away the deserving.
And, in the modern economy, is it important to have LOCAL acquirors? Bill has making that case, but I think we might be entering a new era. Any acquiror's money can flow through to new ventures. My theory is that we can pump up the startup economy by having acquirors regularly visiting the area and thinking about strategic acquisitions. My regional development idea is just to set up a bigger, more persistent version of the yCombinator / Techstars investor demo days, where investors get opportunities to see the local merchandise.
TWO, are there behaviors that we can engage in as business people and regional citizens - the Warner playbook - that make it more likely we can have big successes? I don't see much in this list that people don't already aspire to, or get as advice every day. There isn't much that would qualify as a new behavior. These proposals are, in essence, New Year's promises to "be better at business". They are at the same level as trying to lose weight by promising not to eat dessert for a year. We know how that works out. I think my idea for a regular program to bring in acquirors and connect them with local startups is new, more practical, and will do more in reality.
I'll comment on the three proposals that I think might actually be a little different:
Fund first timers) Bill has been doing this for a long time, and has pushed incubator programs, most recently Techstars, but this isn't always the Boston way.
Awesome Angels) Angel investors are incredibly brave, because later stage investors are dedicated to pushing them out of the deal, and their stakes are exposed, and often don't survive to exit. If we could change this dynamic (deeply rooted in Boston) we would unlock a lot more angel investment.
New blood) Bill mentions the need to recruit from California, but what about from outside the US?
THREE, do I think it is important to aim high and build big and not sell out before you do what you can do? Yes, I do. That idea holds true wherever you live. Enough of that thinking, by enough lucky and smart people, would at least satisfy Warner's goal of building some headquarters operations here in Massachusetts. And, it makes a difference for society.
But, my actions don't necessarily show me supporting this position. Assembla is small, mostly self-funded, and very capital efficient. Our customers and our partners tend to be the same way. We're a product of the new reality of global competition, which pushes us to Japanese levels of process efficiency, and Chinese levels of cost. We're also facing the cash flow reality of software as a service businesses, which get only small up front payments. By having no fixed costs, we limit our exposure to volatile investment trends. Under these conditions, we can make a profit, build new products, double revenue once a year, and I can end up owning, actually owning, a profitable business. That's the old fashioned way to build wealth - much more reliable for the founder than gambling with VC money. But, it's not the best path to innovation. There is a lot of criticism of the idea of capital efficiency as an enemy of innovation, and I think it's valid.
So, we are well adapted to the current environment. But, are we doing enough to change the world? We need to improve on that score. I think a lot about that. We are planning to use partner resources to do bigger things (yes, those guys are in California). But, given the terrific underlying fundamentals of our sector (cloud computing, in various forms) maybe we can participate in a regional effort to do more. I'm in.